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Expected Value (EV) is the average amount you will win or lose per bet over a large sample. A +EV bet means that if you placed this exact bet 1,000 times, you would profit on average. A -EV bet guarantees long-term loss.
Formula: EV = (Win Probability × Profit if Win) − (Loss Probability × Stake)
Professional bettors ignore single-game results. They focus exclusively on placing +EV bets consistently. The math takes care of the rest over time.
Formula: EV = (Win Probability × Profit if Win) − (Loss Probability × Stake)
Professional bettors ignore single-game results. They focus exclusively on placing +EV bets consistently. The math takes care of the rest over time.
Your true win probability is your honest estimate of how likely an outcome is — independent of what the bookmaker thinks. Here are three methods:
1. Sharp Market Method: Use Stake or Polymarket closing odds (remove vig) as a proxy for true probability.
2. Statistical Model: Build or use a model based on team form, head-to-head, and situational data.
3. BCC Oracle: Our Oracle Verdict page gives you a model-based probability estimate for every match.
Once you have odds where your true probability exceeds the implied probability, you have a +EV bet. Use our Kelly Criterion Calculator to size it correctly.
1. Sharp Market Method: Use Stake or Polymarket closing odds (remove vig) as a proxy for true probability.
2. Statistical Model: Build or use a model based on team form, head-to-head, and situational data.
3. BCC Oracle: Our Oracle Verdict page gives you a model-based probability estimate for every match.
Once you have odds where your true probability exceeds the implied probability, you have a +EV bet. Use our Kelly Criterion Calculator to size it correctly.
EV is a pre-bet calculation — you estimate your edge before placing. CLV is a post-bet verification — it confirms whether you actually got value by comparing to the closing line.
The best bettors use both: EV to decide whether to bet, and CLV to verify their process is working over time. If your average CLV is positive, your EV estimates are likely accurate.
The best bettors use both: EV to decide whether to bet, and CLV to verify their process is working over time. If your average CLV is positive, your EV estimates are likely accurate.